The Republicans are already making sure that all their people know that Kerry/Edwards will now get a surge. They are overestimating that surge from choosing the Veep and the convention. That way, as we swing into Republican convention time, they'll claim they did better than expected.
In a memo to campaign leadership Monday, Matthew Dowd, Bush's chief strategist, said Kerry is about to benefit from "the average challenger's bounce."Expect the real bounce to be up to a 52-43 percent margin by the end of August, and for Bush to win back a good deal of that with his own convention. But the Bush campaign will have zero surprises in their convention. Expect a big tribute to Reagan and also 9/11. These folk are going to work on the worst fears and most extreme jingoism of Americans. Hey, if you are a progressive liberal, expect to be called a terrorist in the coming months. Perhaps you can take pride in joining the NEA, the terrorist group that endorsed Kerry/Edwards today. Off the AP wire
"We should expect the race to swing wildly to his favor by early August," Dowd, who remains confident Bush will win, said in the memo.
Current polls show a dead heat, but Dowd said Kerry could be up by a 55 percent to 40 percent margin in early August. Article
