Saturday, July 31, 2004

Newsweek Post-convention Poll

The highlights:

Kerry: 49
Bush: 42
Nader: 3
Undecided: 6

Without Nader

Kerry: 52
Bush: 44
Undecided: 4

"In general, would you like to see George W. Bush reelected to another term as president, or not?"

Yes: 43
No: 53
Unsure: 4
Details and historical comparisons here.

Commentary: What has to be killing Karl Rove is that the answer to the "yes / no" question hasn't been in Bush's favor since September 2003. And there's a 10 point gap now.

I think it's fair to say that Kerry's picked up some convention bounce, and certainly it's a bit too soon to pass judgement on how solid the numbers are. The polls next week will be a better indication of the "bounce". Politicians like to say the polls don't matter, but we all know better than that.

Even more poignant than the Newsweek numbers are the Zogby Poll numbers released yesterday. As was noted yesterday, it's not just the raw presidential horserace numbers, it's the exceptionally weak underlying fundamentals for Bush.

For example, in the South, Bush trails Kerry by 2%. Admittedly, it's within the MOE, but still, if I told you a year ago that Bush would be trailing the Democratic Party nominee in the South, you'd have had me committed. The only place where Bush polls better numbers than Kerry, discounting the MOE, is the heartland. No surprise there, huh? (Rachel Luxemburg has some thought provoking ideas on why Bush plays well in the midwest - call it the language barrier...)

Take a look at John Zogby's press release. By necessity, he couches his words. Yet if you read just a tiny bit between the lines, Zogby's saying that the situation may already be unrecoverable for Bush.

While Karl Rove might say publicly that he doesn't give a Maddie Hayes Memorial Flying Fig about the polls, you know, deep in your delighted little heart that exactly the opposite is true.

And that alone should allow you to sleep with a smile on your face tonight.