Friday, January 07, 2005

Yeah, but...

I can't tell you how many times I've heard statements essentially similar to this in the past weeks / months / years:

...Just three weeks before the vote, the commander of U.S. ground forces in Iraq acknowledged that security is poor in four of 18 Iraqi provinces. But Lt. Gen. Thomas Metz told a briefing in the capital that delaying the vote would only increase the danger.

I'm not of the mind to dig through the archives right at this moment, but saying "security is poor in four of 18" is varnished bullshit. Yesterday, I was doing a bit of news mining, and reports of explosions, ambushes, and general lawlessness were documented in almost every area Iraq - north, south, east, west. Border to border.

Even assuming "4 of 18", those four (according to an NPR report this morning) comprise the most populous areas of Iraq, home to over 50% of the Iraqi occupation, including Baghdad itself and Mosul.

I said before that I have no doubt that the vote will go forward, because Maximum Leader says it must. He / we / Iraqis are in a damned if we do damned if we don't situation right now.

Allawi and Bush are right about one thing: violence will continue to increase prior to the election (as they have accurately predicted in advance of every milestone in Iraq). Once the election is held, it's a fairly safe bet that things will escalate even further.

We are so screwed.