A few weeks back, there was a tremendous hue and cry about the Gallup organization's polling methods and bias. And for two weeks, it looked like Gallup straightened up and flew...errr...not so "right".
Gallup's gone spastic again.
You can't tell me that a legitimate polling organization could show, under any set of postulated circumstances, an 8 point lead for Bush right now. When bounced against every other polling organization in America, results like that simply don't pass the bullshit test. If I'm to believe Gallup, in one week -- seven days -- John Kerry has gone from a one point lead to an eight point deficit. That's a nine point swing.
So yeah, I call bullshit.
Let me revise that.
I call MAJOR bullshit. As in, ELECTION FRAUD, push-polling, oversampled Republican bullshit.
And you know, I wouldn't have a beef with this, except that the poll is cosponsored by CNN, so it will be Fox-lited for days by Blitzer and crew. Any rational human being (and I do mean rational, as opposed to partisan) can see that this poll is about as specious as it can get. There is no consistency between Gallup's results and any other presidential poll on the face of the planet. For example, on the same day that Gallup shows Dubya with a bullshit 8 point lead, Quinlan / Democracy Corps polling shows Kerry with a 3 point lead, and even GOP-leaning Rasmussen only shows a 2 point lead for Bush.
What I can't believe is that the statisticians in the Gallup organization and the editorial supervisors at CNN didn't go, "Whoa, wait a minute. That doesn't appear to jibe with or reflect any kind of reality. Go back and sharpen your pencils."
So, remember this anytime in the next 10 years when you read an opinon poll from Gallup on any topic. It's a shame when a venerated and trusted American organization like Gallup gets caught up in the partisan hackmanship. Like Sinclair Broadcasting, the Board of Directors of Gallup should be calling executive management decision making into question. A business like Gallup's is built almost exclusively on the public's trust of their product. Gallup's executive management has betrayed that trust.
The disservice that both Gallup and CNN are doing to the electoral process is beyond reprehension. After what's happened during this election season, I can never trust Gallup again for any legitimate survey of collective opinion. If they say, "75% of weather forecasters predict rain tomorrow morning", I expect the sun to shine all day.
To summarize, it is not just a matter of my being dissatisfied with the results of their poll that inspired my rant. It's that the results of the poll are so at fucking odds with political reality. And apparently no one in either the Gallup or CNN organizations questioned the outlying nature of the results. If I thought for one moment that the results had any legitimacy at all, I'd be concerned rather than pissed.
On the other hand, unmitigated bullshit like this gives you a glimpse into what President Kerry faces when he takes office in January. The fight can't stop on November 3rd.
(Tip o' the late night hat to reader "judy" for the pointer to Tom Burka's sendup on Gallup. Pandagon also has more on polling...admittedly less emotional than my own rant...)
